TRIDENT Signal Menu

The Table below shows a sample of the Trident Signal Menu email that will be delivered to the brokers for LOD accounts and individual clients for SD and BAST accounts no later than 9:00 PM eastern every trading day. The strategy starts the next trading day at 8am ET for LOD accounts; SD and BAST accounts can trade at anytime after receiving the Trident Signal Menu email. SD and BAST clients are not beholden to the LOD instructions and can trade completely at their discretion.

Note: Product layout and contents are subject to change without prior notice

Trident System Self Directed/Broker Assist Operational Concepts:

Overview:   Trident is designed to predict a large change in prices about a day (one trading session) in advance.  The system takes a statistical approach towards generating the edge. Trident is neither a high frequency trading system nor a strictly day trading system: it usually generates 1-2 trades a month per symbol or about 300 trades a year from a set of 28 futures contracts.

Process:  When volatility is predicted for any of the 28 tickers an email is generated and sent no later than 9:00 PM eastern.  The system does not identify direction, therefore long and short trade management suggestions are presented on the email and the price movement dictates which side to take.  See below for an example. 

Self-Directed Approach:  THESE ARE SUGGESTIONS ONLY.  YOU HAVE FULL DISCRETION OF START TIMES, TARGETS, RISK, STOPS, NUMBER OF LOTS ETC.

Trade Strategy Suggestions:  Trident recommends a dual trade strategy to harvest the best economics from the “edge” in predicting volatility. The first trade is a “Workhorse” and as the name implies its function is to achieve a modest reward for a modest risk. The “WorkHorse” trades generally run through the trade entry-exit cycle within one trading session although an overnight holding period is possible. The second trade is a “RaceHorse” trade which has an ambitious target and a modest risk. The “RaceHorse” is intended for a long-term pursuit (multi-session) of a favorable price “trend”.

The work horse and racehorse trades are independent of each other, and each has their own specific algorithms and trade management suggestions. As a self-directed account the number of lots per trade is entirely at your discretion.  Racehorses are less frequent than work horses. 

Strategy Suggestions:  We have two strategy suggestions within the work horse/racehorse structure: 

1) You can run two WH lots and one RH lot per the trade management suggestions.  In this case, the RH has moved significantly in one direction and then the trade is initiated.  This is what is on the RH nightly email suggestions. 

2) The other strategy is to run one WH lot and one RH lot with the RH starting immediately after the WH win.   The number of lots and starting prices are at your discretion.

The trade management suggestions are on the email but a brief explanation follows:

 GENERAL

• Email comes no later than 9:00 PM eastern.
• Start times the following morning vary by ticker (will be on the email and see below for reference). Self directed can start any time, these are just suggestions.
• Price movement will dictate the long or short position of the trade.

WORK HORSE

Summary:  There will be a suggested entry price for the long and the short trade on the email.  If the price at the time you enter is in between, place stop orders for both the long and the short.  Once one side is activated, cancel the other side. 

If the price is above or below the long and short entry prices, use a limit order in the appropriate direction and do not execute the other side.

Take the profit when the price hits the target

See below for suggested start times, but you have full discretion to start anytime.

LEAN HOGS WORKHORSE EXAMPLE (SEE BELOW FOR THE REPRESENTATIVE EMAIL)

If the price at 9:30 AM Eastern is between 88.125 and 88.875 enter stop orders on your desired number of lots each for long and short with the stop and profit targets on the email.  If the price hits 88.875, the long order will activate and get filled and you cancel the short.  Keep the trade on until it fills or 72 hours elapses or you decide to cancel.  Do the exact opposite for the short.

If the price at 9:30 AM Eastern is above 88.875 or below 88.125 enter a limit order for that direction and do not enter an order for the other direction.  Follow the same target and stops indicated on the email.

RACE HORSE

NOTE:  THIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF THE FIRST STRATEGY ABOVE, WITH 2 WH AND ONE RH.  YOU HAVE FULL DISCRETION TO USE THE OTHER SUGGESTED STRATEGY OR ANY STRATEGY

• Unlike the work horse, the racehorse needs to experience a significant move either way after the suggested start time before the trade entries are active and employs trailing stops instead of static stops
  • The idea is to let the price dictate the substantial movement AFTER the suggested start time and then follow the momentum with the trade management suggestions in the email
  • If the price has moved substantially BEFORE the suggested start time, that side is canceled and the other side left open
• Follow the suggestions for the racehorse entry, targets and trail stops
• If one side fills, cancel the other side
• Keep working orders and trades open for 3 days.
• Cancel the trades at your discretion

NATURAL GAS RACEHORSE EXAMPLE (SEE BELOW FOR THE REPRESENTATIVE EMAIL)

If the price at 10:00 Eastern is between 2.150 and 2.197, it is a live trade in both directions.  Follow the price and see which way it goes.  If it hits 2.25, go long with the indicated target and trail stop.  If it hits 2.097, go short with the indicated target and trail stops.  Cancel the other sides in both cases.

If the price at 10:00 Eastern is below 2.150, cancel the short and leave the long open.  If the price at 10:00 Eastern is above 2.197, cancel the long and keep the short open.

Trident Signal Menu Start Times (Subject to change, please refer to the email for exact start times)

All Times Eastern

APRIL 2023

We developed four separate account sizes based on algorithmic and mathematical risk tolerances (40X risk amount per trade), margin requirements and drawdown scenarios.  The account sizes are guidelines only for SD and BAST accounts but are the actual tickers and contract sizes to be used going forward with an LOD account. The accounts differ in both number/composition of tickers utilized and the size of the contacts.

Also, these accounts are illustrated as fully-funded with no use of leverage. Brokers and clients have the option to lever the accounts to more fully utilize the number of/specific tickers and contract sizes of larger accounts with a smaller at risk capital. SD and BAST accounts have complete discretion over leverage and LOD accounts can discuss this with their broker.

Please see below for the account sizes ranging from $25k to $100k (fully-funded) and the tickers and contract sizes.

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The following table is provided as documentation and reference for the trades executed for LOD accounts starting in January 2022.  It is not intended to be used as a performance measure or an investment track record. Contents are not certified to be accurate and are subject to data entry errors.

In addition, the table is not reflective of SD and BAST account performance potential.  SD and BAST accounts are not beholden to the LOD restrictions regarding time of trade, size of trade, active tickers traded, targets, stops etc.  The results, therefore, can be materially different than those presented in the table.  

Trident was designed and back tested using all 28 tickers and predominantly the larger, standard contracts under the LOD scenario.  This is exactly reflected in the $100k account.  The smaller accounts have a combination of fewer tickers and/or smaller contract sizes.  Therefore, the simulated live results for the smaller account sizes do not reflect the true power of Trident but are still very applicable for subscribers who would like to utilize Trident on a smaller basis under an LOD program.

A total transaction cost estimate is incorporated into the numbers.  We utilized $10, $15, $20 and $25 for the $25k, $50k, $75k and $100k respectively per lot.  We believe these are conservative estimates of ‘all-in’ trading costs and friction including but not restricted to proxy slippage, broker commission, exchange and settlement fees.  Actual transaction costs will be agreed upon with the broker.

Hypothetical performance is shown on a fully-funded basis i.e. an account size of $100K means that the account is fully-funded with $100K in the futures account. It does not mean a leveraged account where an account is partially-funded with the suggested capital. Applying popular leverage ratios (such as 1.5x,1.3x) can materially affect investment performance.

A hypothetical starting balance of 25K, 50K, 75K and 100K is shown to reflect common account sizes. Details about the account sizes are described in the “Suggested Capital & Account Sizes” section. Each account balance has also been charged with a monthly subscription fee as follows which are the fees for an LOD account:

• $25K account – Monthly subscription fee $59
• $50K account – Monthly subscription fee $99
• $75K account – Monthly subscription fee $139
• $100K account – Monthly subscription fee $179

Please note that the monthly subscription fees and transactions costs are tax deductible, therefore acting as a tax shield on the total, after-tax return.

Hypothetical balance is not the same as end of day balance on your brokerage statement. The table below reflects current signals from January, 2022 and is expected to be refreshed with the cumulative trades once every 2 weeks.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE DISCLOSURE: HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT TRADING RESULTS.

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The following is a list of approved brokers for the TRIDENT Signal Menu:

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